PNP welcomes poll results showing it maintains a lead over JLP

PNP welcomes poll results showing it maintains slight edge over JLP

The People’s National Party (PNP) says the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll which shows the party ahead is a good indication of voter intention.

The findings show the PNP having a 3.4 per cent lead over the JLP.

When 1,010 eligible voters were polled from August 20 to September 14, 29.5 per cent of respondents indicated that they would vote for the PNP, as against 26.1 per cent for the JLP.

PNP General Secretary Dr. Dayton Campbell said the party welcomes the poll findings and considers it a “very good indication of where we are”. But he said the PNP is “not satisfied and resting on our loins”, so it will continue to work to improve on the lead.

“We’re grateful that based on the latest public opinion poll, that the party is ahead. We take it as a very good indication of where we are.

“We’re not satisfied and resting on our loins, so we continue to put in the work to improve on that lead.

“But I guess we can get rid of all the speculations that were out there when we commissioned the polls because this poll is now commissioned by an independent entity showing similar results.

In June, a People’s National Party commissioned poll showed the PNP ahead of the JLP by five percentage points.

While that lead has reduced slightly, Dr. Campbell said the base of the party is energised and people are interested in what the leader, Mark Golding, has to say.

The PNP general secretary said the party will continue to focus on selecting its list of 63 candidates.

“Once we have completed that, it’s about engaging the people and just taking our message to them. And we’re pretty confident that we will be able to maintain the lead and build on it.”

Dead heat

The RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

In light of this, Professor of Political and Social Psychology at the University of the West Indies Christopher Charles believes both political parties are locked in a statistical dead heat.

He said the PNP’s 3.4 per cent lead should not be interpreted without accounting for the margin of error.

“Most of that three per cent already falls in the margin of error. So it is a statistical dead heat; the parties are tied. So it’s surprising that people would say that in June, the PNP is leading, in August, September, the JLP is leading, then now in October, the PNP leading again. Simple understanding of the science of voting will show you or tell you that voter preference is relatively stable. Voters don’t change their minds quickly. So there’s no way there could be a dead heat in June and then changed by August without some major development, something so big that there’s political convulsion in the country,” he argued.